Financial progress within the UK this yr has been “timid” and can keep “regular however sluggish” in 2018, the CBI has mentioned.
The enterprise group says progress shall be “tepid” amid Brexit uncertainty, whereas family spending will stay beneath strain from squeezed wages.
The CBI expects subdued quarterly GDP progress of zero.three% till the top of 2019 – nearly half the expansion price since 2013.
The physique expects GDP to broaden by 1.5% in each 2017 and subsequent yr, and fall to 1.three% in 2019.
It additionally argues that CPI inflation peaked at three% in October, and may now ease step by step.
“After a timid 2017, UK financial progress is ready to stay regular however sluggish, with much less pep than we have seen over the previous few years,” mentioned Rain Newton-Smith, the CBI’s chief economist.
Whereas home demand would stay comfortable, she mentioned there have been encouraging financial indicators, together with extra assist from exports, which have been buoyed by the decrease pound and a resurgent international economic system.
“The lacklustre charges of progress that we’re anticipating come towards the backdrop of a number of years of persistently weak productiveness, which is pushing down on the UK’s provide potential,” added Ms Newton-Smith.
“The federal government’s newly introduced Industrial Technique will help handle this problem and increase residing requirements, however the latest White Paper is only a first step – consistency and dedication is required to make this a long-lasting success.”
The CBI mentioned it was clear Brexit was affecting enterprise funding plans, with corporations having to arrange for a “no-deal” situation.
Alpesh Paleja, the CBI’s principal economist, added: “The worldwide economic system is firing on all cylinders, with the upturn in progress turning into extra broad-based. We anticipate this to proceed within the near-term, which can present a supportive backdrop for commerce and financial progress within the UK.
“Coupled with a decrease pound, now is an efficient time for companies to take a look at new exporting alternatives internationally.”
It comes as a research by producers’ organisation the EEF discovered that demand for items from European markets particularly was compensating for a weaker place within the UK.
Lee Hopley, EEF chief economist, mentioned: “Stronger international progress has cemented the foundations for progress in manufacturing this yr, however the sector’s contribution to the UK economic system has been higher than most anticipated.”
She added: “There may be some confidence that this momentum will carry into 2018, however as we head in the direction of the Brexit finish sport we’d like manufacturing to provide the identical trick.”